Forecasting site Kalshi currently gives a 21% chance of a recession before 2026, this is roughly an average probability compared to history. The stock market, which can be a leading indicator of ...

Torsten Sløk, the chief economist at Apollo, said in a note on Monday that the probability of a US recession materializing in 2025 is 0%. He released his top 12 risks to watch for global markets ...

The main factor lowering the probability of a recession beginning in the last several months is the Federal Reserve's interest rates during 2024. We now anticipate the decline of the recession ...

As you can see from this graph, the likelihood of a recession in 2025 is slim. Other projections measure the probability of a recession in percentage terms; they vary significantly, showing - to me, ...

The New York Fed model assigns a 29% probability of a recession by 2025, down from 70% in mid-2023. Kalshi betting markets show recession odds falling from 50% to 23% after Donald Trump’s ...

Economists see interest-rate increases raising likelihood of recession to 44% in coming 12 months. Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal have dramatically raised the probability of ...

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York regularly attempts to calculate the probability of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months using the difference between the 10-year and three-month Treasury ...