As you can see from this graph, the likelihood of a recession in 2025 is slim. Other projections measure the probability of a recession in percentage terms; they vary significantly, showing — to me, ...

Forecasting site Kalshi currently gives a 21% chance of a recession before 2026, this is roughly an average probability compared to history. The stock market, which can be a leading indicator of ...

Business leaders projected that the odds of the U.S. economy entering into a recession were low ahead of President Donald ...

The New York Fed's recession probability model suggests there is still a 29.4% chance of a U.S. recession sometime in the next 12 months. High valuations in areas of the technology sector have ...

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York regularly attempts to calculate the probability of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months using the difference between the 10-year and three-month Treasury ...

Analysis of Treasury yield movements, peak forward rates, default risk, and yield simulations provide insights into future ...

Economists see interest-rate increases raising likelihood of recession to 44% in coming 12 months. Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal have dramatically raised the probability of ...